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Is MA-7 minority-majority? Not among voters

The Topline

Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley announced last week she is challenging 18-year veteran Congressman Mike Capuano. […] Since Pressley’s announcement, much of the coverage has noted the diversity of the district as a key dynamic in how the race may unfold. The urban district, which includes large parts of Boston, Cambridge, Somerville, Everett, and Chelsea, is alone in Massachusetts as the only minority-majority congressional district. […]

But while it’s true that the 7th is less than half white in terms of the total population, the district’s voters are less diverse. According to voter data provided by The Novus Group, a political data firm in Boston, approximately 55 percent of registered voters in the district are white.

Read the rest at wbur.org.

We also dug into this on this week’s episode of The Horse Race, starting at the 13-minute mark.

MPG ICYMI

The Horse Race is heating up in the 2018 campaign season. Last week we dug into the surprise exit of former State Senator Linda Dorcena Forry and the surprise entrance of Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley’s primary challenge to Congressman Mike Capuano. This week it’s all about the caucuses.

In the lead-up to the big game that we’re not talking about around here, WBUR released the final set of numbers from our most recent poll, showing that football fans haven’t tuned out over concussions in the sport. But voters do support government regulation to deal with the problem, especially in youth football, and majorities think the game is unsafe for high school students and younger kids.

THE CROSSTABS

President Trump’s approval ratings have seen a slight bump; FiveThirtyEight puts the latest approval rating at 53.6 percent, with 40.8 percent disapproving.

Meanwhile Gallup breaks down its 2017 Trump approval by state.

The FiveThirtyEight generic congressional ballot puts Democrats ahead of Republicans by 6.5 points. Multiple recent polls show a closing gap: Monmouth has Democrats ahead by 2 points, FOX by 6 points, and RealClearPolitics by 6 points. Democrats were leading by double digits back in December.

Quinnipiac finds opinion of the GOP tax bill is up, although it is still underwater. Now, 39 percent approve and 47 percent disapprove – compared to 32/52 from early January.

Quinnipiac also finds increased confidence in the state of the economy, and 51 percent approval of President Trump’s handling of the economy. That’s Trump’s highest rating on the issue since his inauguration.

GOP-leaning research firm Echelon Insights has put together a comparison of the politics of the 16 markets left standing in Amazon’s search for HQ2 — including Boston.

Views of the Russia investigation remain stable but polarized, says a new Huffington Post/YouGov survey. But Republicans have lost confidence in the FBI.

The Chicago Council of Global Affairs and Levada Analytical Center released new data last month on the US/Russian relationship, showing that though American and Russian publics agree on a number of foreign policy issues, there is a mutual sense of distrust.

Read more

Meet The Authors

Steve Koczela

President, The MassINC Polling Group

Rich Parr

Research Director, The MassINC Polling Group

Hannah Chanatry

Polling Assistant, MassINC Polling Group

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