SUMMARY: The following is a detailed summary of the discussion, not a verbatim transcript.
IAN BOWLES, MASSINC PRESIDENT AND CEO: May is MassINC’s tenth anniversary and we will celebrate in a variety of ways. We are a non-partisan think tank based in Boston. We had a piece of research on the rising cost of higher education. A redesigned full-color Commonwealth magazine will be published next week and then we are cosponsoring a debate on jobs and the economy and cost of living with friends in the media. I see Tim O’Brien from the Healey campaign here and we are changing the topic of this forum to be whether it was a good idea for her to come to the debate. The following week, May 25, we are having former governors to talk about the state of the American Dream. I hope you all will turn out and participate. This morning’s event is simply great fun and we have leading pundits and prognosticators to talk about the nature of Massachusetts politics and policy.
 |
| Craig Sandler, Jim Braude and Robert Keough |
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): Good morning. Thanks for being here for home stretch 2006, our political gabfest sponsored by MassINC and the State House News Service, which runs a partnership and a program called issuesource.org, a web site where you can follow the ins and outs of about two dozen state government issues as they are reported in the news. We will talk today about the governor’s race, the other constitutional offices, and state legislative races. You can check in at issuesource.org for what’s in the news. In politics, years come in pairs, two years between elections, two-year legislative sessions and four-year terms for governors and constitutional officers. Last year we had Starting Line in January to look ahead to the start of the session. We were at a little bit at a quandary as to what to call this one this year. We could have called it Finish Line, but would have had to wait ‘til the action was over. What fun is that? We decided on home stretch. The end of formal sessions will be in July and the governor’s race is just starting to heat up. So we are in a sense at the clubhouse turn in the two-year cycle of politics. Much has happened, but there’s still much to come. We have a fine panel of the media’s leading pundits and prognosticators. I want to focus to start out on what has taken place and then move to what the Legislature may still do. Let’s start with the big product, the health care reform bill that stunned everyone. It’s sort of in a class by itself in terms of scope and ambition and kind of a surprise in terms of how the forces and personalities came together. There’s also uncertainty about what it means in the long run about solving the problem and whether it’s ultimately affordable. Who wants to dive in with an opinion on our new nationally scrutinized health bill?
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: We sat on the same stage at the start of the session and talked about whether there was going to be gridlock at the beginning of the session and whether the Democrats and Republicans would freeze up. I kind of suspected so and didn’t think they would come out with an impressive product. Romney’s health care piece was partly for show and partly to prevent losing $400 million bucks. I thought they may make a run at it and it would fail and I thought we would be sitting here today saying will they, or won’t they? And we did not get gridlock. We are in the home stretch toward a six-way tie in a demolition derby. It was not a pretty process at all. They worked together really badly and presented a fascinating end result and it was ugly and no one knows how it will work out. That’s the story of the session. A lot of interesting things are going on not just in health care. Melanie’s Law is another example, the repeat drunk driving law, where it was not pretty to watch, but they have done – I don’t know if remarkable is overstating it – but interesting stuff, working not especially well together.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: I have been the wet towel or blanket with the health care legislation. It happened not because of the Legislature or DiMasi and Travaglini, but mostly because of Mitt Romney’s national ambitions and because of Partners Health Care, which is the driving business force in Massachusetts right now. And those two forces combined in a really big way to convince and move the Legislature to produce the product they produced. And it may work out. I am not enough of an expert, but there are still a lot of questions. It’s a big accomplishment and also a big question mark of the session so far.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: I agree with some of that. The health care thing is somewhere between the DiMasi line – the most import piece of legislation ever I think was his quote – and a sop to the insurance companies. It’s not just where it’s gone. The first question is where it is to begin with? One, the public has no clue what was passed, zero, in part because it was a bipartisan love fest. A little more gridlock would have been good frankly, had there been some high-profile public debate. Number two, the vast majority of legislators have no idea what they voted for. I don’t mean that disrespectfully. I mean it truthfully. An intern at NECN called with three simple questions and 13 of 15 could not answer the three simple questions. Two actually got three for three. I used to be a lobbyist and loved when things were slammed through that I supported with no discussion. But when you’re a member of the public you don’t sort of feel that way. Scot Lehigh wrote a piece saying the devil is in the details – people are going to be forced to buy insurance, how much is it going to cost, what are the co-pays and deductibles? They may buy it and then not be able to use it because of the cost. He left out the biggest issues, – if you are one of the people insured, I assume you think this did something to bring double-digit premium rate increases into single digits. The sponsors admit it doesn’t do anything about cost containment. When the folks at home get their premium thing and see the rates are still going up at an extraordinarily high rate, it’s a problem. One more thing, the most memorable and important moment was the drunk driving thing and it’s not because the Legislature did its job, but because the media and the public forced this bill down the throat of the Legislature. The behavior of members of the House in particular with that Portugal trip was despicable and disrespectful. The Globe photos were unbelievably powerful. The character who’s head of the, what’s his name O’Flaherty, is forced to come back and they almost unanimously they don’t include this provision about the document being able to be used in the process. They do a 180 almost overnight because the press did its job and Ron Bersani, who is a hero to me of almost unparalleled proportions, he rallied the public and the press did it’s job and the Legislature was forced to listen. It was a great lesson for virtually everybody for years to come.
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): I want to turn to Ginny, Joan raised the point that you hammered hard in your column about the role of the business community in health care and business stepping in and turning around a community that had been adamantly opposed to the DiMasi bill and the payroll tax to fund health insurance. Somehow, they got convinced this nominal assessment was something they could live with.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: I always think back on this issue to 1987 when Michael Dukakis stood on the steps of the State House celebrating with his big health care achievement and thinking that was going to propel him to national office. Similarly, the business community, while opposed, was kind of trampled by the enthusiasm of the politicians. You know how that turned out. It turned out to be a disaster. This will be an albatross around Romney’s neck in 2008. A segment of the business community went along with it and there is a big difference between the Boston-centric business community and who is creating the jobs, a group in 128 and 495 that hasn’t spoken up and has allowed a certain segment of the business community to put their position forward. The rest of the state better start speaking up or they are going to have to pay the price of these misguided initiatives.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: The details just got filed yesterday with Washington. Open enrollment for the new plans runs March through May of next year and the penalties begin in 2008. Those are details the public does not realize.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: And when a new governor comes in, the business community beyond the chamber could rally, and the strong piece of the employer mandate could be on the table.
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): As I look at the details, the detail of when people are going to be required to have insurance, subsidized or not, and the imposition of penalties, there is a big out there if there are no affordable products available, so we could easily see a scenario when all of the pieces of the state-funded parts of the bill go into effect and we are paying the bill and the other pieces don’t because of the unaffordabilty of products. So the state and the taxpayers pay the bill but we still are short of full coverage.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: It has great potential. Since this is such a bipartisan leadership thing and no one wants to see it fail, I don’t know what the critical dates are frankly, but if they arrive and they are not ready, they will extend them until they are ready or long gone. I don’t think the implosion, if there is one, will happen before the critical moment for Mitt Romney in the presidential campaign. The individual mandate, which I am not crazy about, has huge appeal in Republican primaries. This is an individual responsibility thing. You take some control over your own life. Government subsidizes for those who are most in need, so it can show it’s compassionate side.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: You haven’t been reading the Wall Street Journal editorial page. It splits the Republican Party. I defer to Ginny on that. There is the libertarian point of view of how dare you force someone to do something. I still don’t see how they enforce the personal mandate. Are they going to drag people out of the emergency room in handcuffs if they don’t have insurance?
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: The Wall Street Journal doesn’t vote, real people do. The pitch he is going to make is I was able to make sure everyone has insurance, whether he has it or not, and I was able to do it without the critical ingredient that most makes you nervous – without the T word, without taxes. If there were a substantive debate, the jury might come back and find him guilty or the Democratic leaders guilty, but the issue is how does this play politically and there’s more value in this for Romney.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: I would not want to be an Iowa caucus-goer who saw the ads that are inevitably going to be run about Mitt Romney having socialized medicine and if you don’t do what he says you pay a $1,000 fine you little Joe Taxpayer. It’s going to be ugly at that level.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: An assessment is another word for tax.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: And the ads are fun to picture, come with us Mrs. Johnson, we’re from the Commonwealth Insurance Connector and you haven’t gotten your insurance. There is a lot of grist for the mill for conservatives to use against Romney running to his right claiming he is coming from Massachusetts and the best he can do is come up with a huge government bureaucracy . . .
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: That Ted Kennedy blessed.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: To that extent you’re right. Ted Kennedy is a prop for some conservative running to the right of Mitt Romney. It’s not Sal and Trav . . .
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: It’s George Allen and Frist.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: That’s a terrific observation.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: One of the appeals of George Bush 43 in this campaign was that he was able to portray himself as someone with the ability, disingenuous or not, to reach across the aisle to Democrats, a uniter not a divider. I was as stunned that in probably what is perceived as the most Democratic left-leaning state in America, to have a Republican governor who has no legislative support able to bring every Democrat to the table is another incredible argument, putting the substance aside for a moment. They may love to hate Kennedy, but who brings them . . .
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: That helps in the general, not in the primary.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: Remember we are all talking as if it’s not going to work. If it is stretched out over time and accomplished in increments and the people they hire to run it are competent, the thing could work. How many people think it’s more likely than not to work. (Few raised their hands). Okay, you are in line with the gloom. Nevertheless I still want to strike that hopeful note.
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): This is an audience for a political gabfest. You get demerits for optimism. You have to be a cynic.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: I am looking at Ginny and thinking about the Herald front page headline the day you are required to do it or get fined, there will be a downtrodden person in the Herald eating cat food because she can’t afford it.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: We will find her. (Laughter)
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): Jim brought up Melanie’s Law. It was such a political and legislative train wreck. How can they screw up an anti-drunk driving bill? It’s low-hanging fruit for Democrats and Republicans. Nobody is in favor of drunk driving. Everyone is in favor of being tough on it. And yet they totally boggled this thing and created an issue they didn’t have to create. They made a hero out of folks they mostly love to hate, the governor and lieutenant governor. How tone deaf was that that Gene O’Flaherty and House Democrats tried to mess with something they didn’t need to?
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: They relied too heavily – a fundamental reality we see played out over and over again – in 95 percent of the legislating the governor does not matter because there are not Republicans in the House and Senate to override the vetoes, to make it matter. You saw it on the business assessment on health insurance. We see it on a hundred things that are smaller and Melanie’s Bill was smaller. The governor didn’t particularly like it but the attitude among the leadership, and justifiably so because they win election after election, is we are going to do what we want. How many times did it happen to Cellucci? They can marshal all their resources and all their arguments to try to have an impact, but it’s not going to matter. In this case, it mattered.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: What really happened there was a failure of communication. I will be a bit of a dissenting voice. With interlock devices, there is a lot of evidence that those don’t work and how they are implemented has not been ironed out. Gov. Weld opposed and might have vetoed requirements to have interlocking devices, for that reason. It was not necessarily a good part of the bill. People like Gene O’Flaherty understand, whether you agree with him or not, that side of the issue, having represented many people in court, they just don’t get up and – they kind of do underhanded backroom dealing to kill these things rather than stand up and say there is a real issue here. It may not be popular, but this is what the problem is with this piece of the bill. They just don’t do that and it’s to their detriment. There is a public debate to be had.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: Usually on Beacon Hill it’s like that old thing – what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas – that would be what happened under the Golden Dome. The family gave Romney the political clout, the family of Melanie. They empowered him to do what he did. I recall being at a press conference a few years ago and he had been behind it, but just couldn’t go up against the Legislature before. They rightfully harnessed the power of the media. The long-term impact of that law, it would not surprise me if there is a some kickback to it. Although everyone is against drunk driving, everyone knows that once or twice they got behind the wheel with one drink too many, and I think the tough, tough penalties, when they start kicking in for your next-door neighbor, there could be a pushback against it. It is something that could happen to anybody and then people start analyzing it in a slightly different way.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: I suspect that isn’t true and I think they made it tough that you have to do it a lot. You have to do it enough times so there won’t be a pushback.
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): The public also weighed in in a big way on the in-state tuition bill for illegal immigrants. It seemed to be a slam dunk, according to the sponsors, and then it sat around and by the time it came to a vote, it got voted down in the House. What were the influences?
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: It’s the big lie that Massachusetts is this ultra-liberal state. There certainly are liberal pockets but we have a lot of conservative ideals that conservative people in Brockton and Taunton and city centers that are Democrats by registration, but that are pretty conservative on issues like this. This issue resonates and the Democrats that go on the wrong side of this and run for statewide office are going to be really hurt.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: Can I tell you how confusing that is to me? For one reason and it’s a diversion. Team Reform with Gov. Romney in 2004 ran heavily on that issue and it could not have gone worse. Not a single candidate running hard on that issue actually defeated an incumbent. I have no more to say about that. It is simply a confusing, contradictory, messy awkward truth and I think you are right about this state and this city.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: Those are not issues you win state legislative races on. That’s about taxes going up and schools. Those races are very person-by-person centric.
 |
| Jim Braude |
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: The political impact of this has absolutely nothing to do with the substance of this bill. Now, the ‘I’ word is as hot as the ‘T’ word was in a prior generation. If you are angry at immigration, you are against in-state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants. Doesn’t matter whether they are here legally or not or what all the rules are. It gets all caught up in this immigration lunacy that is going on in this country, whether it’s that or licensing. Illegal, legal – it all gets lost in the shuffle. At $15 million, it was not a huge ticket but a great impact for these kids. You want to punish the parents, punish the damn parents but don’t put these kids in the position of not being able to afford to go to a community college or a state college. It was another example of the advocates for that in the Legislature having a total tin ear about what the environment was in which they were trying to advance the thing. A lot of small issues that don’t have a huge impact have great potential to have a dramatic effect on this gubernatorial race beyond things like health care. They’re the ones that stick in your gut.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: I think Reilly took the right position on it but if he is the nominee, it can be used against him and could hurt him in a general election.
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): A big social issue coming back is gay marriage. We have another convention on whether to advance a gay marriage rollback proposal to the ballot. The steam seemed out of it the last time it came up. They’ve gone back and started over again. What do you think they are going to do in Constitutional Convention?
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: I think they will advance it. I think there is going to be a vote on it in 2008. I don’t see the playing field as having changed particularly much. The evolution tends to be the sky has not fallen and gay marriage is slightly more acceptable than when we had the brouhaha.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: This won’t make gay and lesbian advocacy groups happy, I think the Legislature should vote on this thing. I know the argument about you don’t vote on civil rights. I am a believer that if you collect the signatures, you are entitled to a vote. They only have to get 50 votes. They are going to get it and it is going to get crushed on the ballot, I don’t mean 70-30 but it has 60-40 potential. If Travaglini decides not to allow a vote, they will collect signatures again and again. But what do they say – they who are against gay marriage – in 2008 when it loses? They can’t say people didn’t understand the wording or that Birmingham or Travaglini got in the way. It’s the final word. In my view, since it’s going to be voted on in the Legislature and be successful, the focus will be 2008 and putting the issue to rest period. The whole sky is falling thing is like yesterday’s news. The war is over but it doesn’t mean there are not a lot of horrible battles that people have to fight, some of which are really unpleasant and I wouldn’t like to be in that position.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: The war isn’t over, not even close to being over. Even in Oregon, a very progressive state, voters voted to ban gay marriage.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: They don’t have people who are gays and lesbians marrying in their communities like we do here with not only no detrimental impact, with happiness and smiles and wonderful family things happening right in their midst.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: That could be but it’s not going to be personalized. When you go into the voting booth, it’s a private thing. You might have a best friend who is married and love them and love the fact that they have a great relationship but still believe that marriage should be between a man and a woman and you will vote that way.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: Every Massachusetts poll show residents evenly divided. In this state there is a little bit of a hidden vote against gay marriage. I don’t there is anything overwhelming about this at all.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: I think it’s close but the passionate war is over. Really. Immigration is the new gay marriage. People have moved on. They are angry at illegal aliens.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: 2008 is far away and we do see passions rise and fall. If we have the national spotlight in a presidential year in the state with gay marriage, they could rise pretty high again.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: From the governor’s standpoint, Mitt Romney whipped up passion against gay marriage and that’s not going to be true of the next governor.
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): We had substantial changes in leadership in the House and Senate within the last four years. Very different sets of dynamics, but not necessarily prettier than between Finneran and Birmingham. Finneran was the conservative watchdog playing a little footsie with the Republican governors on veto overrides. Now we have two basically more liberal leaders. Has the nature of the process changed and could that play a role with the gang of three symbolism in the upcoming election?
 |
| Craig Sandler |
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: I actually think it’s changed a lot. We were asking, will Sal and Trav work well together? On a lot of things they really did. One thing they did work well on was health care, even with dramatic differences. They did win. It took seven extra months. Emergency contraception would not have passed. They’re going to do clean needles. Seat belts is going to pass. The building is a different building. In terms of policy, it’s very different and it may have an impact on the governor’s race because the Legislature is faintly leftist – the surprise on immigration not withstanding, you now have a social liberal aligned with a social liberal passing that agenda. It kind of melds the race into a decision not about ideology so much but more about leadership and management because everybody wants also to be faintly liberal on a lot of these issues.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: The question is not whether they are social liberals, but fiscally liberal. That is where Healey holds the trump card, moreso now because Finneran is gone and the gang of three is much more dangerous than it may have been even in the last election.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: I think they know that and for example, that’s why you have Travaligni saying let’s not do an income tax cut, but a tax cut for working families taking care of old ladies and young children. That’s a good way to kind of finesse that issue. And of course they are getting ready to tell Kerry Healey that she and Romney didn’t do anything about the economy so they have their trump card.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: That’s if you are convinced that DiMasi and Travaglini really want a Democrat as governor. That’s always an open question. It’s made them important players and once you have a Democrat in there with their own agenda . . .
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: If I were Kerry Healey, I would have gang of three tattooed on my forehead tomorrow morning. It is the strongest argument. The public doesn’t know who Travaglini and DiMasi are. They knew Finneran and Bulger. Some may have known Birmingham. If you are unaligned voter and you stand up and say, do you really want them to control everything? If you’re close, you vote for the alleged balance? Some say it won’t make a difference, but look at capital gains and drunk driving. Healey can make a strong case that we have enough of a bully pulpit to hold these people in line. It’s an incredibly powerful argument made slightly less so because people don’t know who Travaglini and DiMasi are. The thing that is harder to articulate is if Kerry Healey loses this race, it’s the end of the Republican Party. I don’t mean that in a dramatic, hyperbolic way. They have 22 legislators and no constitutional officers. If Healey loses, it is over. Some fence sitters say I’m not crazy about her necessarily, but I don’t want one party to have absolute control not just now but permanently. So I think that helps her.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: Voters are comfortable voting Republican at the top of the ticket. They have been doing it since 1990. It hasn’t been a disaster for 16 years and the balance has worked pretty well.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: This is a personal observation. I used to spend my time at the State House and my blood pressure was 135 over 98 and when I left I totally calmed down. Forty-five minutes here and my blood is . . . it’s really an unhealthy addiction.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: I do want to point out here in home stretch that that Legislature has changed immensely because Sal is so much more liberal and the president and speaker are aligned on social issues so closely and they did not get into absolute gridlock and the building is a completely different place. It’s way different. And they’re just getting rolling now that they have health care behind them.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: A smart governor will still play on the institutional rivalry between House and Senate. This is a little inside baseball but Weld and Cellucci could find common ground with Bulger or Birmingham or Flaherty and Finneran and work it. The House and Senate want to trump each other more that they want to trump the governor. If you know that dynamic, that dynamic hasn’t changed, and you can really make sure the governor’s agenda is still advanced.
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): What is the biggest problem likely to be for Healey?
 |
| Virginia Buckingham |
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: First and foremost, no one knows her. She does not have a primary to get out there like the Democrats. Mihos running in the Republican primary would have been a great thing for her candidacy. She has a little bit of woman hangover frankly, as there has not been track record of women running for that office or voters being comfortable with a woman in that office. That is something she will have to deal with. This is the Holy Grail they have not been able to get. She needs to warm up. She is a great person. She is very warm and very smart and very direct but does not come across that way at all on TV. Image is everything. You can’t have Kerry Healey standing behind the bar at Foley’s pouring beer. It’s not going to work. Mitt Romney sold hot dogs at Fenway Park. It’s the same challenge of humanizing and warming up these people but difficult to do with a woman. There has to be thought given to how you introduce her as a human being.
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): Is Romney going to help or hurt Healey’s prospects of moving up?
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: I don’t think he did a lot to help her, unlike Weld, who had Cellucci right in the mix and the same thing with Cellucci and Jane Swift. That was not the role Romney offered Healey. If you go around and talk, a lot of liberal advocates really like her. Behind the scenes, she has established some really good connections, but agreeing with Ginny, that hasn’t really translated to the outside world yet. Without a primary opponent it’s harder for her to do it without spending on TV ads like Gabrieli is doing. It’s tougher for a woman. You have to disprove history. She needs to warm up. Two of the three Democrats are not exactly the warmest or fuzziest people either. If you have Healey debating Reilly or Gabrieli, I don’t sense sparks coming from either so the passion gap won’t be that obvious. If she were up against Patrick, even those polls show he is the person she can beat, that is a different dynamic of two really different personalities and images.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: The stage is set for one of the Democrats and if I were betting, I say one of them ekes by. Two caveats. People laugh at the Mihos candicacy, that he is a jocular, fun guy. I think this pox on both your houses – he’s no Jesse Ventura or Lowell Weicker – but this pox on both your houses is very appealing. If he makes it the whole way, underestimating both his candidacy and his impact on Healey is a mistake. People know there is a debate on the 18th and I understand why she is not participating. It would be four against one. I think she made a big mistake. You get some debating stuff under your belt when no one is paying attention. No disrespect to my own station. Secondly the public gets very uncomfortable in my estimation with gang-ups and it’s clear all three Democrats in that debate will talk not about each other, but the Romney-Healey record and job growth and obviously Mihos is going to go after her. If she is prepared, she may not come out unscathed, but people will say four people are beating up on one person and beating up on a woman, which people are not comfortable with. Don’t shake your head about the woman hangover. This state I believe has the single worst record in America, the most liberal state in the country. Three women elected to Congress ever. Not a senator. One constitutional officer, Shannon O’Brien, in history. You can’t just dismiss it and say well that was then, we are in a new age in 2006. We are not in a new age. There is no evidence to me that particularly in executive positions, even more importantly than a legislative positions, that Massachusetts has shown any great readiness that a woman lead them. I’m not saying it’s a killer but it’s not a non-factor in this campaign.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: Nor has any woman shown that they are ready for leadership so let’s not just blame bad voters.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: Shannon O’Brien, despite a few gaffes showed she was just as ready for prime time as Mitt Romney was. It was not exactly a slaughter.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: The Republican won that election for a lot of reasons that Ginny was talking about. Now you have a Republican who is a woman who is just as attractive in the proper sense of the word as the other candidates running and actually I think the forces are aligned for that reason to work in her favor. She is sort of middle of the road and nobody is standing out vastly superior in terms of personality and positions. And we’ve never elected a woman, darn it the time has come. So it can cut both ways and there’s only one way to find out and that’s to play the game.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: I don’t think Kerry Healey has anything to gain by participating in the debate this early. Maybe she will come out looking okay and maybe she will come out looking beat up, but who knows? Why take that chance now? Do it while people are paying attention and the stakes are a little higher.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: It would be silly for her to get into this debate. It would be good for the media and coverage but from a political standpoint she should wait until after the primary.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: It could be Christy’s night by the way.
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): Who has the ability to win the Corner Office back from the Republicans?
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: Deval is a non-starter. His positions put him so far to the left fiscally. He is against the rollback and against any number of fiscal issues on the wrong side, on immigration issue he’s on the far left side. The other two have a shot because they take in some conservative positions. They support the rollback in some fashion. Democratic candidates have not gotten it that the state wants a fiscal conservative as governor and those two may take the card away from Kerry Healey. It remains to be seen. Deval shows no sign of wanting to take that card away and he’s playing into the Republicans’ hands.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: It sure feels like 1998 to me. When we started, Kerry Healey was almost a non-entity when we started. There was almost no way to imagine her being viable. Now it feels to me like you have got an uninspired, unenergized Democratic base. You have the independents perfectly willing to elect another Republican. It’s very difficult to imagine the Democrats coalescing around Gabrieli or Reilly – I leave Patrick alone for now – any more strongly than they did for Harshbarger. They weren’t all fired up around Shannon O’Brien either. But certainly it really reminds me of Scott Harshbarger if one of those two is nominated. Healey’s standing, if only by contrast, is astonishing.
 |
| Joan Vennochi |
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: It’s Kerry Healey’s race to lose. As far as the Democrats, I go back and forth. I don’t know who wins. The conventional wisdom is Patrick is just too liberal to win. I guess I reached that conclusion. I once suggested that Tom Reilly should drop out. He didn’t listen to me. He has rebounded. He has held his own. He has been running a much smarter campaign. It was interesting in Lowell at the convention, Healey took pains to go after Reilly and Patrick and didn’t mention Gabrieli. The bloggers said that meant they didn’t think he was important. If you had a general with two centrist people with business backgrounds each backed with a lot of money, that could be a pretty close race. In the long run if Gabrieli gets 15 percent and wins the primary, he could be the strongest contender against Healey.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: First, I can’t think of one prediction that I made in 20 years that was correct. I really don’t have a strong opinion about who stands last. Reilly is the man to beat, according the polls. I am surprised that he withstood the Murphy sister, Conte thing out of Worcester, the thing with St. Fleur. By the way, while he showed his lack of care, her behavior was beyond despicable. She said she knew when it came out it would be a career ender, but she didn’t mention it to the guy who was kind enough to pick you is just disgraceful. I hope some day she re-emerges to actually give an interview to someone. And standing up for regular people who don’t pay the bills – I had always been a fan of hers but it was disgraceful from top to bottom. But he did survive. In the Keller debate, I thought Reilly, time after time after time, made the points that matter to voters back home. I don’t rule Patrick out, as Ginny does, but he makes my case as to why Healey should participate – the fact that a candidate even answers a question like Jon Keller’s about if you had to raise taxes, what taxes would you raise, the answer is I am planning on raising taxes, next question. And Deval, because he is new to this – he is incredibly smart and skilled – the fact that he felt it appropriate to say that if I had to, I don’t plan to, I’d probably do the sin taxes. Already, Reilly is saying if he has to, he will raise sin taxes. He hasn’t done a debate before. She hasn’t either. She got crushed in two legislative races by a nobody. The notion that if she waits ‘til September, when Mihos has probably been in 20 debates and the winning Democrat in 20 or 10 debates, and she is going to step in without correcting mistakes in debates because she hasn’t participated in any, I think her not participating is going to come back to haunt her. A smart thing Reilly has done – when I was getting crushed for those two things I would have been on television like that because I thought he was gone too – the fact that he held back his money and still re-emerged with four million bucks shows great political restraint and wisdom. Obviously Gabrieli is loaded but Deval is never, I don’t think, going to have what Tom Reilly is going to have, which is going to position him well later this summer.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: If it’s Reilly versus Healey, a lot of women break for Healey in that match up and if women are a deciding factor, a lot of women would break for Healey.
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): Let’s talk about the Mihos factor. How serious is his candidacy? Is it a true independent candidacy that’s challenging Republicans and Democrats or is he just paying the spoiler and will Kerry Healey pay the price?
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: This is where I think the media needs to do its job. If he stays in, he draws from both. I don’t know who he hurts more. By definition, he’s then more of a spoiler because he can’t win. This guy has never been scrutinized, like other candidates who have run before and won before and have had their private and public lives examined. He has been in the enviable position of just lobbing bombs as a member of a board and getting some great media headlines and if the media steps up and looks at the real record of what happened at the Big Dig and his role in it, that will be an interesting issue that might kind of change people’s perception. This guy runs a chain of small businesses successfully but I am sure like everyone else, there is stuff there that will be of interest to the voters, the benefits he provides, how workers are treated. I just see a very long road ahead for him. I am sure if the media doesn’t do it, the other candidates will do it.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: It just could not be more fascinating. We have no way to package his impact on the race. It is without parallel in recent or perhaps long-term memory. He has a lot of money. The consensus is nobody takes him seriously. Nobody has the slightest idea what his impact on the race is going to be. He does have a lot of money. Say he is angry and just stays in, what happens? No one can say, which is wonderful if you are a journalist.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: I don’t sense that kind of general anger towards government right now. There is anger towards illegal immigrants. A lot of it is changing faces at the State House. There are not big villains at the State House. There are no Bulgers or Finnerans, but relatively two nice guys with a lot of vowels in their names. I don’t see the anger you need to fuel a third party candidate for governor.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: I have been waiting for a candidate to use the below the surface concern about Big Dig issues. I am not convinced that that does not have some value. Keep in mind that Republican governors have presided over this thing for 16 years. Tom Reilly is not going to have any cost recovery by November. It provides an opening. That really is his calling card, that I stood up for you even if you didn’t care on this turnpike thing. There is a populist hook to that that might have greater shelf life than some suggest. If there were a huge presence on either side – they are all mid-level kind of candidates – he would be an irrelevancy. I don’t think he is an irrelevancy unless Healey or the Democrat emerges as a slightly larger than life candidate come September and I don’t see that.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: There is a lot of ambivalence about the Big Dg. They are mad about the cost, but there is sense of civic pride and marveling about the engineering. It’s like overspending on a dress that makes you look fabulous. (Laughter) The populist thing is possible, and if it happens I will write about it, but I’m skeptical.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: There are dozens and dozens of votes Christy Mihos took as a member of that board to add to the price. It had to be. He was there and did not vote no on everything. That’s for darn sure. People are not angry but they are frustrated. People think we are on the wrong track by a decent, 10-point margin. They don’t blame anyone in particular, which is good if you are an incumbent but they are looking for someone to respond to their frustration. The candidate that identifies with that and can show they are the change agent, they are the one that is going to win. It could be Kerry. It could be Gabrieli. It could be Reilly.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: We forget Carla Howell at our peril. The point being the complete elimination of the income tax in Massachusetts, which did staggering well.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: Oh Please. She was the worst candidate in the history of America. It was a political statement. The vote was not because people wanted the income tax eliminated.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: She came shockingly close to repealing the income tax and we forget that example at our peril.
ROBERT KEOUGH, COMMONWEALTH EDITOR (MODERATOR): Who has a question or comment?
AUDIENCE QUESTION: Kerry Healey has benefited from separating herself from certain Romney positions. Do you expect him to campaign with her and will that be a plus or minus?
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: He will and it’s a plus. Mitt Romney has, as one operative put it, refreshed the brand. He did not run as a Weld, Cellucci or Swift successor, but to clean up the mess and whether he has or hasn’t, voters have a generally positive view of him as governor. Their anger at him is as much that he’s leaving and is never here than that he hasn’t done the right thing. She will benefit from his support as well as distinguishing herself on social issues. She kind of gets the best of both worlds.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: He will make selective appearances. When she went to this event sponsored by Planned Parenthood after the state convention, there was no Mitt Romney. On Monday, when he did a press event with Barbara Anderson – Kerry Healey and Mitt Romney. So he will help her at selected events.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: Incidentally, about the party itself, that’s one of the big changes. We didn’t know when Mitt Romney was elected how he could do in terms of energizing the party. It’s just been awful. That was shocking in Lowell to see who was running and how many people are not in the Legislature anymore. It’s really amazing the degree to which the whole party is Kerry Healey. That’s partly always the case. But they gave it their best shot in 2004 and now it really seems that the party as an institution is functionally not existent. That’s a huge change in this state and it’s hard to predict what the impact of that will be.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: It’s been that way as long as I can remember.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: The party was energized to have Romney get in and there was an expectation that he was going to be able to translate to the Legislature.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: That was a false expectation.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: There was a real sense of a shell in Lowell. Just nothing there. When there are sort of more Globe reporters than Republicans (at the convention), it had a more hollow feel than usual.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: Keep in mind there was no combative primary like there was between Cellucci and Malone. I try to look at things as glass half full. I thought back to Greg Hyatt and Royall Switzler and Keriotes. We have come a long way guys and have legitimate gubernatorial candidates. We have always had a poor showing at the legislative level, except in 1990 when that kind of wave of anger carried in the Senate. That was an aberration.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: One factoid about the Mihos thing, he paid for the poll that showed Romney would crush Jane Swift and he sort of gets rewarded, after getting dumped by Swift, by not being reappointed to an open seat by Romney on the turnpike. A small but not insignificant wedge for Democrats is George Bush. I asked Healey if Bush calls and wants to campaign for her, what do you say? This is not verbatim. She said I have great respect for the office. A good Democrat or Christy will try to attach the worst politically of Mitt Romney and the worst of George Bush – you can’t dump Iraq on Healey – but there are pieces that are unappealing that she is going to have to respond to, even on the margins. I think Romney has really done a disservice not just to the candidate, but when you follow a new model, it was disrespectful to have her almost literally and figuratively walking behind the governor. The piece written in one paper about the video – I know it’s a presidential video. She can’t even be part of the video at the state convention? You excise her when you use it in Iowa. I thought it was just very bad form. She is in a tough position.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: Politically speaking, I hope they run against Bush for governor. It’s not going to work at that level. It works in a federal race when we saw Gingrich and Dole in Kerry’s ads against Weld. She could not be more different socially than George Bush and has nothing to do with the conduct of the war obviously.
AUDIENCE QUESTION: We have lost 165,000 jobs and 200,000 people who have walked to other states. It’s a pretty serious problem. It’s in the papers but it doesn’t resonate in the Legislature. What are the candidates going to do? Can they get their hands around it? It’s not getting the traction you would think it would.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: The Democrats are going to talk about stagnation and it could cost Healey the election. The biggest challenge remaining on Beacon Hill is coming up with solutions to the root cause of this plight. It’s part of a picture where, for example, the unemployment rate in March went down because we lost people faster than we lost jobs. That is not a good scenario. Unfortunately, no one is really addressing it effectively and I think no one can, not to be too much of a downer here. In terms of population, it’s housing costs and attracting workers – housing, housing, housing is the problem. I really think there is no will to do what needs to be done and tell cities and towns you are not allowed to have your zoning laws, we are going to override them. Until that is successfully implemented, read never, I don’t think there is going to be a profound change in reality. It’s the kind of thing that calls for the kind of leadership that loses elections. In other words, somebody stands up and says damn it I am going to lose the race saying this, but here’s what we need to do.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: The job loss helps the Democrats but the truth is no one could have stopped John Hancock from being sold or Bank of America coming in. Those just are giant forces that no politician can stop. They all take credit for economic growth wrongly and then pay the price on the other side.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: It’s more a question of don’t make it any worse. Voters understand that governors can’t do much to impact the economy. They don’t want governors to get in there and change tax policies and regulatory environments to make it worse.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: I am surprised that it has not resonated. There’s not the anger that I have loved in this state. It doesn’t exist on most things. There is a huge disengagement going on. I agree the lost population is a nice ad. I am not sure there is a proposal that will advance one candidate over another. It is a problem even if it’s a candidate without a solution. There is a limited amount that one can do on the state level. Patrick does talk a lot about disinvestment, which resonates with business people but with the public it often means just spending more money.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: Romney has not been a powerful packager of an economic message, like Dukakis was or Weld was with reforming the government to boost the climate. Romney has not really been so terribly engaged and the Democrats have not been in an executive position to make the case so you wind up in a vacuum in terms of that discussion politically.
AUDIENCE QUESTION: We left out Evelyn Murphy. If voters are sophisticated enough to distill fiscal issues, are they sophisticated enough to elect a person of color?
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: Yes. They have done so statewide. They were willing to do it in ‘66. They are willing to do it in ‘06. Absolutely.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: I am not so convinced. It’s 2006. Show me the evidence. I hope you are right, but it’s almost the same plane with the woman thing. There just is not the history. People will say they are going to judge on the merits but I am not convinced that subliminally that that subliminal bias, whatever it is, is totally gone. It may be tiny on the margins. In a close election, it’s not a non-factor.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: The interesting point is the African-American we are talking about was a Republican, Sen. Ed Brooke.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: The two highest profile African Americans in this state – Ralph Martin and Wayne Budd – both are Republicans and both support Tom Reilly.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: Ralph Martin ran and won as a Republican sitting in Boston.
 |
| A member of the audience asks a question |
AUDIENCE QUESTION: You mentioned one of Healey’s strongest arguments was balancing the Legislature. Romney was very effective in using the gang of three imagery. O’Brien had no strong counterargument to that charge. What can a Democrat do to diffuse that argument?
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: Do you think there is a problem Kerry Healey with Republicans controlling the presidency and both houses of Congress? Well no, they have done a great job. Then why can’t Democrats control both houses and the governor’s office? I think it’s a weak argument but the only game in town.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: The answer is Tom Reilly loses the convention, which would be the best thing that could happen to the guy, and says he is not part of the establishment and the Legislature and is going to be his own person. He could potentially pull it off.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: But then he has an unenergized base. I think it’s extremely tough.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: Remember Bill Weld and Steve Pierce? A lot of people have lost conventions and gone on to be nominees in both parties. John Silber.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: The point about losing the convention is a great one.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: O’Brien campaigned the last two weeks with Ted Kennedy and the Democrats the last two weeks and it played right into that message. A successful Democrat won’t do that.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: Can someone ask what piece of legislation would be most important to pass in the last few months? (An audience member did so).
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: Thank you for asking. I am obsessed with the elimination of the statute of limitations on child sexual abuse and the fact that it is totally buried yet again by the infamous Eugene O’Flaherty. This garbage from defense lawyers that if cases are old – the witnesses die, the evidence gets old . . . that’s the situation in every case. The prosecutor makes the decision about going forward based on how good the evidence is on the day they go to a grant jury to get an indictment. The fact that that is dying in some committee after all that we lived through in this state is absolutely unconscionable. Sadly, I read virtually every list – by the way both MassINC, Commonwealth and the State House News Service for those of us who don’t live our lives at the State House, thank God, is our lifeblood I mean it sincerely is hugely important – NECN may be more important. But on a serious side, it didn’t make the undone list. Not the biggest issue in the world. I cannot believe we lived what we lived through and this thing not a peep particularly since the burier is O’Flaherty himself. My hope is it gets more profile and they are forced to do what they should have done. Thanks for asking the question.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: I just want the Red Sox to put in for their infrastructure money.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: Housing, a failure of leadership.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: My husband is a judge. I will say judicial pay raise.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: Just on that for a second. She has a track record on criminal justice. For Healey to talk about judicial pay raise as hackery is not only silly, it’s analogous to Weld saying most sixth grade teachers have not read a book in years. A kid sitting at home is being told by the most powerful person in the state that your teacher is a hack. I had the same feeling about this. She is supposed to be a leader. Judges make nothing to begin with, to pick them as a target is really cheap and not worthy of someone who is a pretty honorable person. There are a lot of good targets in government. That ain’t one of them.
AUDIENCE QUESTION: Any chance any of the lieutenant governor candidates on the Democratic side will have an impact on the race? (Laughter)
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: There are a lot of emails from them.
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: On this race, no. But it is a proving ground and breeding ground for talent. The dynamic there is very different than it has been for a long time.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: I think we ignore them at our peril. (Laughter)
AUDIENCE QUESTION: It’s interesting we have come this far in the discussion without a discussion about education and without a discussion about municipal finance, if you listen to localities just how strapped they are. Do either of those play in this election? If they don’t play, why not?
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: The beleaguered cities and towns never does play, never will. What might well play is the other side of that equation, property taxes, and Deval could do a turnaround there. It is waiting there for everybody. There are a lot of votes there. On education, MCAS is perceived as working okay. We still have under-performing schools. With big increases in local aid and lifting of the Lottery cap, it doesn’t make a big impression because of that. Property taxes though are different.
VIRGINIA BUCKINGHAM, BOSTON HERALD COLUMNIST: I have always loved excise taxes too as a political issue. That’s the one tax bill I get that I want to scream every time it shows up. A candidate who taps into being against taxes because you own a car because it sits in a driveway . . .
CRAIG SANDLER, STATE HOUSE NEWS SERVICE GM: Revenues are a positive trend and state funding of cities and towns. Geoff Beckwith (of the Mass Municipal Association) may not agree.
JIM BRAUDE, NECN NEWSNIGHT HOST: Patrick must say let’s provide relief on the property tax if we are not going to roll back the income tax. On education, what is going to play are the outliers. Are you for or against charter schools? The Gabrieli full-day issue is a huge issue for virtually all of us who are working parents who have no idea what to do with their kids in the afternoon, how to afford what to do. He has a calling card on this thing and can show people.
JOAN VENNOCHI, BOSTON GLOBE COLUMNIST: Education has now become a discussion of the haves versus have-nots. The middle to upper suburbs think MCAS and ed reform are working pretty well. It’s not working in the poorer cities and towns and I don’t think most people care about the poorer cities and towns. Quite honestly it’s really just a divide – it’s affecting someone else and not you. A lot of voters are just not focused on it.
